Ranking football teams with best chance to win Big Ten in 2024 (2024)

Ranking football teams with best chance to win Big Ten in 2024 (1)

Ben Kenney

July 26, 2024 7:10 am CT

The annual Big Ten football media days took place this week in Indianapolis, Indiana, marking the start to the 2024 season.

All 18 Big Ten members now hold training camp before the season kicks off at the end of August. The first Big Ten football game of the 2024 season will be Minnesota-North Carolinaon Thursday, Aug. 29. But for all intents and purposes, the season began at the conclusion of media days.

Related: USA TODAY Sports 2024 Big Ten football preseason poll

The season will be challenging for any expect to predict. The clear top-tier contenders are familiar brands plus one significant newcomer. Beyond that, the rest of the conference landscape is anybody’s guess. USA TODAY Sports released its preseason poll in advance of media days, but that poll is likely to look a lot different when the season concludes.

The unknowns entering the season exist as the Big Ten eliminates its East-West division model and institutes a pool play format with the arrivals of former Pac-12 powers USC, UCLA, Washington and Oregon. Every team’s schedule increased in difficulty overnight. Some will be hurt by the new format (mostly the former Big Ten West teams), while others will appreciate avoiding the constant shadow of Michigan and Ohio State (every former Big Ten East program).

Either way, the new landscape is challenging to predict because there is little historical precedent to what the Big Ten has become — a coast-to-coast conference with a collection of many of the sport’s premier brands.

Big Ten Team Previews:Indiana HoosiersPurdue BoilermakersIllinois Fighting IlliniNorthwestern WildcatsMinnesota Golden GophersNebraska CornhuskersIowa HawkeyesRutgers Scarlet KnightsMaryland TerrapinsMichigan State SpartansUSC TrojansUCLA BruinsWashington HuskiesMichigan WolverinesPenn State Nittany LionsOhio State BuckeyesOregon DucksWisconsin Badgers

Big Ten Position Previews:QuarterbacksRunning BacksWide ReceiversOffensive LinesTight EndsDefensive LineLinebackersCornerbacksSafeties

With the season one month away, here is a ranking of all 18 teams by their chances to win the Big Ten in 2024 — based on a combination of team strength and schedule difficulty:

18

Purdue Boilermakers

Ranking football teams with best chance to win Big Ten in 2024 (2)

Purdue Boilermakers head coach Ryan Walters waits to take the field ahead of the NCAA football game against the Illinois Fighting Illini, Saturday, Sept. 30, 2023, at Ross-Ade Stadium in West Lafayette, Ind. Purdue Boilermakers won 44-19. Alex Martin/Journal and Courier-USA TODAY NETWORK

Badgers Wire Big Ten Power Ranking: No. 18

Schedule Ranking:No. 3-toughest

Purdue has the wrong combination of a rebuilding roster, an unproven coach and one of the toughest schedules in the conference. It visits Wisconsin and Ohio State and hosts Oregon and Penn State. Even if the team improves in Year 2 under Ryan Walters, there’s no chance it’s winning the conference.

Full 2024 Purdue Boilermakersteam preview

17

UCLA Bruins

Ranking football teams with best chance to win Big Ten in 2024 (3)

Feb. 13, 2024; Los Angeles, California; UCLA Bruins athletic director Martin Jarmond, right, with new head football coach DeShaun Foster during a press conference at Pauley Pavilion. Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

Badgers Wire Big Ten Power Ranking: No. 16

Schedule Ranking:No. 2

UCLA projects to be a substantially better team than Purdue in 2024, but its schedule includes games against Oregon, at Penn State, at Rutgers, at Nebraska, against Iowa, at Washington and against USC. It misses most of the Big Ten’s poor competition — not a good recipe with a new head coach, two new coordinators and a large amount of program turnover.

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16

Northwestern Wildcats

Ranking football teams with best chance to win Big Ten in 2024 (4)

Nov. 18, 2023; Evanston, Illinois; Northwestern Wildcats head coach David Braun watches his team play against the Purdue Boilermakers at Ryan Field. Jamie Sabau-USA TODAY Sports

Badgers Wire Big Ten Power Ranking: No. 14

Schedule Ranking:No. 9

Northwestern returns a much of its production from the team that went 8-5 in 2023. However, a substantial regression is likely with the Wildcats no longer benefiting from playing in the Big Ten West. This ranking is also about a team’s ceiling — where some below-average teams do have the potential to break out and beat top teams. That doesn’t appear to be Northwestern this season.

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15

Illinois Fighting Illini

Ranking football teams with best chance to win Big Ten in 2024 (5)

Nov. 11, 2023; Champaign, Illinois; Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Bret Bielema reacts to a call during the second half against the Indiana Hoosiers at Memorial Stadium. Ron Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

Badgers Wire Big Ten Power Ranking: No. 13

Schedule Ranking:No. 12

Bret Bielema is setting records at Illinois with 18 wins over his three years as head coach. That speaks to where Illinois traditionally falls in the conference pecking order — and points to some likely struggles with eliminating the Big Ten West.

Illinois’ ceiling in 2024 does not include Big Ten title contention.

Full 2024 Illinois Fighting Illiniteam preview

14

Minnesota Golden Gophers

Ranking football teams with best chance to win Big Ten in 2024 (6)

Nov. 26, 2022; Madison, Wisconsin; Minnesota Golden Gophers head coach P.J. Fleck stands before taking the field prior to the game against the Wisconsin Badgers at Camp Randall Stadium. Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

Badgers Wire Big Ten Power Ranking: No. 14

Schedule Ranking:No. 7

Minnesota may have a team that is capable of contending if all goes well. P.J. Fleck has brought the Gophers to the doorstep before, although that did occur five years ago. The bigger roadblock here is the schedule. Minnesota faces Iowa, Michigan, USC, Penn State and Wisconsin in 2024. The schedule makes a 10-2 mark a near impossibility.

Full 2024 Minnesota Golden Gophersteam preview

13

Indiana Hoosiers

Ranking football teams with best chance to win Big Ten in 2024 (7)

Indiana head coach Curt Cignetti during the Indiana football spring game at Memorial Stadium on Thursday, April 18, 2024. Rich Janzaruk/Herald-Times-USA TODAY NETWORK

Badgers Wire Big Ten Power Ranking: No. 18

Schedule Ranking:No. 17

New head coach Curt Cignetti has a lot of work to do after the Hoosiers went 3-9 in 2023. But he brought a host of players and coaches with him from James Madison this offseason. That should help establish at least a baseline of performance. The team’s ceiling is more unknown.

Indiana is at this spot because of its schedule. The Hoosiers play Michigan and Ohio State, but otherwise will have a chance to win every other game they play.

Full 2024 Indiana Hoosiersteam preview

12

Maryland Terrapins

Ranking football teams with best chance to win Big Ten in 2024 (8)

Dec. 30, 2023; Nashville, Tennessee; Maryland Terrapins head coach Mike Locksley waits to take the field before the game against the Auburn Tigers at Nissan Stadium. Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports

Badgers Wire Big Ten Power Ranking: No. 10

Schedule Ranking:No. 14

Maryland would be higher on this list if QB Taulia Tagovailoa were still on the roster. Instead, the Terrapins enter 2024 with arguably the worst quarterback situation in the conference.

That is what keeps the program at this spot in the ranking. Otherwise, it will benefit from the elimination of divisions and is set to face one of the conference’s easier schedules. There’s just too big of a question at quarterback.

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11

Michigan State Spartans

Ranking football teams with best chance to win Big Ten in 2024 (9)

Michigan State’s head coach Jonathan Smith leaves the file after the Spring Showcase on Saturday, April 20, 2024, at Spartan Stadium in East Lansing. Nick King/Lansing State Journal-USA TODAY NETWORK

Badgers Wire Big Ten Power Ranking: No. 12

Schedule Ranking:No. 10

Michigan State has an exciting new head coach in Jonathan Smith, a potential star in quarterback Aidan Chiles and a somewhat manageable schedule. However, Year 1 of a rebuild typically does not see a program reach its ceiling. Five new starters on defense and a top-down roster overhaul keep the Spartans out of the sleeper category.

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10

Washington Huskies

Ranking football teams with best chance to win Big Ten in 2024 (10)

Jan. 8, 2024; Houston, Texas; Washington Huskies mascot Harry the Husky during the 2024 College Football Playoff national championship game at NRG Stadium. Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Badgers Wire Big Ten Power Ranking: No. 9

Schedule Ranking:No. 6

We now enter the sleeper category in the conference. On the surface, Washington should be above that tier after playing for the national title in 2023. But almost that entire team is gone as well as head coach Kalen DeBoer. New head coach Jedd Fisch is tasked with a complete roster overhaul as he looks to return the Huskies to their expected spot in the top third of the conference.

Washington has the ceiling to contend if everything goes perfectly for Fisch. But it must be considered a sleeper after an offseason of turnover.

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9

Wisconsin Badgers

Ranking football teams with best chance to win Big Ten in 2024 (11)

Oct. 28, 2023; Madison, Wisconsin, USA; Wisconsin Badgers head coach Luke Fickell looks on during the second quarter against the Ohio State Buckeyes at Camp Randall Stadium. Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

Badgers Wire Big Ten Power Ranking: No. 7

Schedule Ranking:No. 4

Wisconsin has a significant dispersion between its ceiling and floor entering 2024. That is almost entirely due to offensive coordinator Phil Longo and his air raid approach. If it clicks, the Badgers could contend. If not, it could be a long season.

The Badgers are down at No. 9 due to a challenging schedule that includes home games against Oregon and Penn State and road contests at USC, Iowa and Nebraska. Wisconsin would need a truly special season to get anywhere near contention.

Full 2024 Wisconsin Badgersteam preview

8

Rutgers Scarlet Knights

Ranking football teams with best chance to win Big Ten in 2024 (12)

Nov. 25, 2023; Piscataway, New Jersey; Rutgers Scarlet Knights head coach Greg Schiano runs out to the field with his team before the game against the Maryland Terrapins at SHI Stadium. Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports

Badgers Wire Big Ten Power Ranking: No. 11

Schedule Ranking:No. 18

Wisconsin and Washington will likely both be better than Rutgers in 2024. But no team in the conference has an easier schedule. The Scarlet Knights avoid Ohio State, Oregon, Michigan and Penn State. The team’s toughest games are vs. Washington, at Nebraska, vs. Wisconsin and at USC. Rutgers is unlikely to be favored in any of those contests, but the games are all winnable if the team is as good as many think it will be.

Head coach Greg Schiano returns nearly his entire 2023 team that went 7-6. The program will never have a better chance to win the conference than it has in 2024.

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7

Iowa Hawkeyes

Ranking football teams with best chance to win Big Ten in 2024 (13)

Oct. 14, 2023; Madison, Wisconsin; Iowa Hawkeyes head coach Kirk Ferentz looks on during warmups prior to the game against the Wisconsin Badgers at Camp Randall Stadium. Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

Badgers Wire Big Ten Power Ranking: No. 8

Schedule Ranking:No. 11

To win the Big Ten in its new era, a team will have to be elite on at least one side of the football. Iowa fits that category with one of the nation’s best defenses entering the season. If the offense somehow clicks under new OC Tim Lester, the Hawkeyes will be a tough out for anybody on the opposing sideline.

Big Ten fans saw the Hawkeyes get blanked in the Big Ten title game in 2023. So, yes, there is still a substantial gap between this group of programs and the conference’s top tier.

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6

USC Trojans

Ranking football teams with best chance to win Big Ten in 2024 (14)

Oct. 7, 2023; Los Angeles, California; Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley watches game action against the Arizona Wildcats during the second half at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

Badgers Wire Big Ten Power Ranking: No. 5

Schedule Ranking:No. 1

Speaking of elite units, USC will again have one of the nation’s best offenses under coach Lincoln Riley. There is a question of how it will adapt to the style of the Big Ten. But Riley’s track record deserves the benefit of the doubt on that side of the ball.

The big question is on defense. The Trojans have been one of the worst defensive teams in the sport over the last few seasons. New defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn should improve that level, but an immediate resurgence is a lot to ask for.

The other big factor is the schedule. USC visits Michigan and Washington, plus hosts Wisconsin, Penn State, Rutgers and Nebraska. That challenging slate paired with some likely growing pains in year one in the conference leads to this under-the-radar ranking.

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5

Nebraska Cornhuskers

Ranking football teams with best chance to win Big Ten in 2024 (15)

Sept. 16, 2023; Lincoln, Nebraska; Nebraska Cornhuskers head coach Matt Rhule walks on the field after defeating the Northern Illinois Huskies 35-11 at Memorial Stadium. Dylan Widger-USA TODAY Sports

Badgers Wire Big Ten Power Ranking: No. 6

Schedule Ranking:No. 15

Nebraska begins to bridge the gap to the programs that can realistically win the conference with a peak season. That is thanks to one of the nation’s best defenses, Matt Rhule’s history in his second and third years with programs, an easy schedule and the ceiling of five-star freshman quarterback Dylan Raiola.

Nebraska’s floor has been apparent for most of the last decade. Its ceiling will come into focus under Rhule. The question is when.

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4

Michigan Wolverines

Ranking football teams with best chance to win Big Ten in 2024 (16)

Jan. 8, 2024; Houston, Texas; Michigan Wolverines offensive coordinator Sherrone Moore against the Washington Huskies during the 2024 College Football Playoff national championship game at NRG Stadium. Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Badgers Wire Big Ten Power Ranking: No. 4

Schedule Ranking:No. 5

There is a significant gap between No. 5 in the conference and its top four. Michigan remains in the top tier despite mass turnover after its national championship in January. Head coach Jim Harbaugh now coaches the Los Angeles Chargers, while nearly the entire team of seniors is gone to the NFL.

Michigan is one of four programs in the Big Ten with the recruiting baseline to still contend in what projects to be a “down” season. It is not the favorite, but a fourth consecutive conference title is very much a possibility.

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3

Penn State Nittany Lions

Ranking football teams with best chance to win Big Ten in 2024 (17)

Nov. 24, 2023; Detroit, Michigan; Penn State Nittany Lions head coach James Franklin leads his team on to the field before the game against Michigan State at Ford Field. David Reginek-USA TODAY Sports

Badgers Wire Big Ten Power Ranking: No. 3

Schedule Ranking:No. 13

No program will benefit more from the elimination of divisions than Penn State. The Nittany Lions are again good enough to win 10 or 11 games in 2024, but this time they will not have to beat both Michigan and Ohio State to make the conference title game.

Penn State faces Ohio State in 2024, but importantly misses Oregon and Michigan. It has the potential to win every game on its schedule — and the team figures to fare better in big games assuming another step forward from former five-star QB Drew Allar. Don’t be surprised if 2024 is finally the breakthrough year for James Franklin’s program.

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2

Oregon Ducks

Ranking football teams with best chance to win Big Ten in 2024 (18)

Jan. 1, 2024; Glendale, Arizona; Oregon Ducks head coach Dan Lanning speaks with the official on the sideline during the second quarter against the Liberty Flames in the 2024 Fiesta Bowl at State Farm Stadium. Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

Badgers Wire Big Ten Power Ranking: No. 1

Schedule Ranking:No. 8

Oregon and Ohio State are 1a and 1b entering the 2024 season. Oregon may be the slightly better team, but it has a slightly tougher path through the conference. It hosts Ohio State in October, but visits Michigan and Wisconsin before an end-of-season showdown against Washington.

The Ducks will have a tougher time running the table than the Buckeyes will, even though the matchup between the two teams is in Eugene, Oregon.

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1

Ohio State Buckeyes

Ranking football teams with best chance to win Big Ten in 2024 (19)

Dec. 29, 2023; Arlington, Texas; Ohio State Buckeyes quarterback Lincoln Kienholz (12) talks to Ohio State Buckeyes head coach Ryan Day in the third quarter against Missouri Tigers during the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic at AT&T Stadium. Kyle Robertson/Columbus Dispatch-USA TODAY NETWORK

Badgers Wire Big Ten Power Ranking: No. 2

Schedule Ranking:No. 16

Ohio State is, again, the 1b to Oregon’s 1a in terms of team quality. But it is established as the premier brand in the conference and enters 2024 with the motivation of three years of late-season failures.

The Buckeyes visit Oregon and Penn State in 2024, but host Michigan, Iowa and Nebraska. The Buckeyes shouldn’t be any worse than 11-1. It would then come down to a Big Ten title rematch against either Oregon, Penn State or Michigan.

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Ranking football teams with best chance to win Big Ten in 2024 (2024)

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